Trends in the markets for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles
The trend in the automotive industry closely follows global economic developments. We assume that competition in the international automotive markets will intensify further. Uncertainty may arise from continued shortages of intermediates and commodities. These may be further exacerbated by the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and, in particular, lead to rising prices and declining availability of energy.
We predict that trends in the markets for passenger cars in the individual regions will be mixed in 2023. Overall, the global volume of new car sales is expected to be noticeably higher than in the previous year. We are forecasting growing demand for passenger cars worldwide in the period from 2024 to 2027.
Trends in the markets for light commercial vehicles in the individual regions will also be mixed; on the whole, we expect a noticeable increase in the sales volume for 2023. For the years 2024 to 2027, we expect demand for light commercial vehicles to increase globally.
For 2023, we anticipate that the volume of new passenger car registrations in Western Europe will be significantly above that recorded in the reporting period. Limited vehicle availability as a result of the shortages of intermediates and commodities may continue to weigh on the volume of new registrations. We also predict significant growth in 2023 for the major individual markets of France, the United Kingdom, Italy and Spain.
For light commercial vehicles, we expect the volume of new registrations in Western Europe in 2023 to be strongly up on the previous year’s level. Limited vehicle availability as a result of the shortages of intermediates and commodities may continue to weigh on the volume of new registrations. We predict a strong increase in France, the United Kingdom and Spain, and noticeable growth in Italy.
Sales of passenger cars in 2023 are expected to significantly exceed the prior-year figures in markets in Central and Eastern Europe – subject to the further development of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In the region’s principal markets, a significant to sharp rise in the number of new registrations is expected.
Registrations of light commercial vehicles in 2023 are expected to fall noticeably short of the prior-year figures in markets in Central and Eastern Europe – subject to the further development of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The volume of new registrations for passenger cars in Türkiye in 2023 is projected to be significantly above the previous year’s level. In South Africa, the market volume in 2023 is likely to be up slightly year-on-year.
The volume of new registrations for light commercial vehicles in 2023 is expected to be noticeably higher in Türkiye and significantly higher in South Africa compared with the respective prior-year figure.
In the German passenger car market, we expect the volume of new registrations in 2023 to noticeably exceed the prior-year figure.
We anticipate that the number of registrations of light commercial vehicles will be very strongly up on the previous year.
The sales volume in the markets for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (up to 6.35 tonnes) in North America overall and in the USA in 2023 is likely to be noticeably higher than the previous year’s level. Demand will probably remain highest for models in the SUV and pickup segments. New registrations of all-electric vehicles are also estimated to increase at a higher-than-average rate. In Canada, too, a noticeable increase is expected in the number of new registrations compared to the previous year. For Mexico, we expect a slight increase in new registrations compared with the reporting period.
Owing to their dependence on demand for raw materials worldwide, the South American markets for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles are heavily influenced by developments in the global economy. We anticipate a significant increase overall in new registrations in the South American markets in 2023 compared with the previous year. Strong growth is expected in the market volume in Brazil compared with 2022. We anticipate that the volume of new registrations in Argentina will be significantly higher year-on-year.
The passenger car markets in the Asia-Pacific region are expected to be noticeably up on the prior-year level in 2023. We estimate that the market volume in China will be slightly higher than the comparative figure for 2022. Attractively priced entry-level models in the SUV segment in particular should still see strong demand. The continuing parts supply shortages, possible measures to halt the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and intensification of geopolitical tensions could act as a drag on demand. As long as there is no resolution in sight, the trade dispute between China and the United States is likely to continue to weigh on business and consumer confidence. We anticipate that the Indian market will perform slightly better than in the previous year. Japan should see noticeable growth in market volume in 2023.
The volume of new registrations for light commercial vehicles in the Asia-Pacific region in 2023 will probably be slightly higher than the previous year’s figure. We are likewise expecting demand in the
Chinese market to be slightly higher than the prior-year level. For India, we are forecasting that the volume in 2023 will be on a level with the reporting period. In the Japanese market, we estimate that volumes will be noticeably lower year-on-year.