Development of the global economy
Our planning is based on the assumption that global economic output will grow overall in 2023 albeit at a slower pace. The persistently high inflation in many regions and the resulting restrictive monetary policy measures taken by central banks are expected to increasingly dampen consumer spending. We continue to believe that risks will arise from protectionist tendencies, turbulence in the financial markets and structural deficits in individual countries. In addition, growth prospects will be negatively impacted by ongoing geopolitical tensions and conflicts, with risks continuing to arise from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It cannot be ruled out that risks may also arise if new variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus occur, particularly regional outbreaks and the associated measures. We assume that both the advanced economies and the emerging markets will show positive momentum on average, even with below-average growth in gross domestic product (GDP).
We also expect the global economy to recover in 2024 and continue a path of stable growth until 2027.
In Western Europe, we expect a comparatively low rate of economic growth in 2023. The relatively high overall level of inflation, which is projected to taper off as the year goes on, poses a major challenge for consumers and companies alike.
Likewise, we anticipate comparatively low growth rates in Central Europe in 2023 with continuous price increases; however, economic output in Eastern Europe is not expected to recover following the slump in the reporting period as a result of the Russia Ukraine conflict.
For Türkiye we expect positive, albeit slower growth than in the reporting period given high inflation and a weak local currency. The South African economy will probably be characterized by political uncertainty and social tensions again in 2023 resulting from high unemployment, among other factors. Here we anticipate only slight growth.
We expect GDP in Germany to grow only slightly in 2023 and inflation to remain high averaged over the year. The labor market situation is likely to see some deterioration in 2023.
We anticipate only slight economic growth in the USA in 2023, accompanied by a worsening labor market situation. The US Federal Reserve is expected to essentially end the spate of key interest rate hikes that it began in the reporting period. Further inflationary trends will play a decisive role in possible adjustments to the key interest rate, as will developments in the labor market and in the general economic situation. Economic growth in Canada is also likely to be at a relatively low level, while economic output in Mexico is expected to expand at a somewhat faster pace.
In all probability, the Brazilian economy will record a slightly positive rate of growth in 2023. Economic output in Argentina is likewise expected to see no more than a slight improvement amid continued extremely high inflation and depreciation of the local currency.
The Chinese economy is likely to grow at a relatively high level in 2023 after a comparatively moderate expansion rate in the reporting period. We likewise expect a relatively high rate of positive GDP growth for the Indian economy in 2023. A slight rise in economic output is anticipated in Japan.