Trends in the markets for commercial vehicles
For 2023, we expect a noticeable upwards trend in new registrations for mid-sized and heavy trucks with a gross weight of more than six tonnes compared with the previous year, with variations from region to region, in the markets that are relevant for the Volkswagen Group.
Noticeable market growth is expected for the 27 EU countries excluding Malta, but plus the United Kingdom, Norway and Switzerland (EU27+3) because it has so far not been possible to fully satisfy the high demand for trucks due to continuing supply bottlenecks. We anticipate that Türkiye will see a significant drop in demand. In South Africa, we expect demand to be on a level with the previous year. The truck market in North America is divided into weight classes 1 to 8. We expect a noticeable increase in new registrations in the segments relevant for Volkswagen – Class 6 to 8 (8.85 tonnes or heavier). We estimate that demand in Brazil will be slightly lower than in the previous year.
On average, we anticipate a slight decrease in the relevant truck markets for the years 2024 to 2027.
A significant increase in overall demand, with regional variations, is expected for 2023 in the bus markets relevant for the Volkswagen Group. We anticipate slight year-on-year market growth in the EU27+3 countries. Here, we are assuming that the coach segment will recover and that we will receive orders in the context of government-funded programs. We expect a very sharp increase in the school bus segment in the USA and Canada. For the bus market in Mexiko, we anticipate a sharp rise. In Brazil, new registrations are expected to decline significantly after the strong prior-year growth.
Overall, we expect a slight increase in the demand for buses in the relevant markets for the period from 2024 to 2027.